INCA for Syria

The 1st Deal Landscape

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About this report

Using INCA, we are generating an ongoing public conversation among those actors who can do the most, about what matters most in Syria:


INCA benefits prime actors in three ways

As a participant, you benefit from Interviews and feedback sessions in three ways. You gain:

  • An opportunity to think deeply about Syria and those prime actors who influence the life of Syria
  • An opportunity to share your perspectives and have them read by hundreds of actors active in the life of Syria  
  • An opportunity to learn about the perspectives of other prime actors in the life of Syria, about the country and about you. 

As a prime actor, the first deal landscape give you critical information about the lack of agreement and confusion among prime actors about Syria’s: 

  • National sovereignty (in 6 dimensions)
  • National capacity (10 dimensions)  
  • National story (4 dimensions) 
  • Threats to the country (3 dimensions) 
  • How other prime actors see you (3 characteristics) 

As a prime actor, the first deal landscape give you critical information about the lack of agreement and confusion among prime actors about: 

  • Who you need to partner with to plan and implement a successful venture
  • The commitment of each prime actor to a vision of inclusive nationalism for Syria
  • The influence of each prime actor
  • The likely influence of each prime actor in ten years.

Each subsequent round of interviews and feedback will strengthen the network of prime actors, which will make it easier for them to connect and partner with each other, and will help them to gain a shared understanding of Syria at this moment in time.

Each subsequent round of interviews adds more data, and invites actors to respond to data provided by others. Actors may agree, disagree, or give a new perspective on information learned from others. After each round, the charts and supportive statements are updated to include feedback and changes. Again, all actors are notified after each round, and our education and media campaigns continue.

Through several rounds of interviews and feedback, prime actors will move closer to a rough consensus about Syria’s current state and the actors most influential in the life of the country. 

After 6-8 rounds, the second deal landscape for Syria will emerge, which will reveal “low hanging fruit,” opportunities for the negotiation of multi-party agreements that start from a shared understanding of the situation and the prime actors who can most influence the situation. The charts and statements can then feed into planning, partnerships, and projects to stabilize, rebuild, and develop Syria.

INCA is useful to those who want to learn more about Syria, to those Syrians attempting to build their country despite the war, to the Syrian diaspora and bilateral and multinational organizations wanting to help Syria, and to sovereign and international funds wanting to invest in Syria.


How a first deal landscape can help you now

Syria’s INCA 1st Deal Landscape reveals how little the prime actors understand each other and how much they disagree about the condition and capacity of Syria. With such confusion, most actions, no matter how well-intentioned, are doomed to fail or may worsen the situation.

This first deal landscape provides evidence to support those who argue that prime actors need to understand more about Syria before committing resources or taking action to rebuild or change the country.  


How to use this report

The first round of the Sovereignty First framework is the beginning of an ongoing public conversation about Syria. The charts in this first deal landscape show the extent of current confusion, disagreement, and misinformation affecting conditions in Syria. 

Here are links to supporting information, including an explanation of our method and measures, and a list of funders. You can access each section of the report through the links below:

A history is the history of the Sovereignty First framework with Syria. 

An explanation of our methodology, how it improves prediction, and our assumptions.

An explanation of our measures, how we measure reliability, and contains a glossary and the Sovereignty Assessment questionnaire.

A list of our funders and in-kind contributors.

The first in a series of blog posts that give examples of how to use the report. 



Want to be Involved?

If you would like to be included in this process, or would like to support the process in Syria or other countries, please contact us.