Environmental Threats

Dimension 16 of 17

We wanted to learn about environmental threat to the Syria in the next 20 years. We listened to a wide range of local, regional, and international actors influential in the life of Syria. We received a wide range of responses, for example: 

"Most of the houses are half demolished. An earthquake would be catastrophic. With most of the hospitals destroyed an epidemic would be a disaster." (233911)

"The infrastructure now is so degraded." (233531)

"The nuclear material is a terrible threat. Imagine if someone gets ahold of it." (231211)

"We know the water crisis has a lot to do with this, and that the water crisis was killing people before. It was a trigger. The war is a bigger killer now. The Arab Spring was probably a bigger causal factor to the war than water." (239312) 

"Syria has a water shortage and drought problem. It can force people to move." (238631)

"There is no infrastructure to protect people. A political solution from outside would be necessary. The members of the European Union agree they will not fund reconstruction unless all parts of the country can participate in governance. If ISIL damages the dam on the Euphrates they could cause a lot of environmental problems." (232272) 

"Syria is in the Middle East, subject to drought. It could disrupt a significant part of the population, depending on how you define significant." (233121)

"In Syria there are no environmental threats at all. There is a lack of services. There are a lot of water resources and rivers. Syria is very rich in water resources. [I] expect in 10 years a barrel of water will be more expensive than a barrel of oil. It doesn't create environmental problems because it is an agricultural country. If there were investment in technology the resources of Syria would make it very wealthy. The only threat to it is its potential for political division causing the partition of natural resources. IS has a rich territory and so does the government, but the freed region has nothing." (233881)

"This is not the subject discussed at the moment. Water is an important point." (231642)

"There are resource shortages now. They are in the middle of a self-imposed resource shortage." (239311)

"Syria is an agricultural country. We would have no shortages." (230713)

"We are facing severe consequences from a drought. People don't think of it as an environmental threat. They see the environment as a luxury concern." (236592)

Is Syria facing an ongoing water crisis that could result in mass deaths? Or are their no environmental threats at all?  Why does this matter in your choice of partners, the design of initiatives, and the implementation of those initiatives? Read more to find out. Scroll to the bottom of the page for more statements. 

ABOUT INCA DIMENSION #16: ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS  

Environmental threats to Syria is the 16th of 17 dimensions in Syrian society that influential local, regional, and international actors assessed and discussed through 3 rounds of interviews and feedback, beginning in January, 2016.

Taken together, the 17 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria and its people. Interview participants assessed the capacity of each dimension, represented by the y-axis; higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats.

Environmental threats is important because it countries are compelled to react to threats. Every threat the country reacts to is an opportunity to strengthen Syrian national identity, sovereignty, and national capacity. Based on the 8-level hierarchy described in the question below, participants from 27 influential organizations assessed environmental threats to Syria at different levels at this time in history, from as low as Level 1 to as high as Level 6. (At the bottom of this page, you can read statements interview participants gave to support their assessments.)

The Question

In the next twenty years, which level best describes how serious the threat of a resource shortage, natural disaster, or plague, is to the country? (If two seem equal, name the lower level.)

1.     An environmental threat will cause the deaths of a significant part of the population.

2.     An environmental threat will dislocate, but not kill, a significant part of the population.

3.     An environmental threat will disrupt the infrastructure of the country, but not significantly dislocate its population.

4.     In response to an environmental threat, there will be authoritarian-like government control to manage the crisis and minimize disruptions.

5.     In response to an environmental threat, there will be large-scale changes in public and private behavior due to economic incentives and informal social pressures.

6.      The country is well-equipped to handle a resource shortage, but will not support any other country as it supports its own.

7.      The country is well-equipped to handle a resource shortage, natural disaster, or plague, and the country would support the population of at least one other country as the country supports its own.

8.      The country is well-equipped to handle a resource shortage, natural disaster, or plague, and the country would support the population of almost any country just as it would support its own.

READ CLOSELY, IMAGINE, LEARN

Read each statement below closely. Assume the person who wrote this is sincere; they believe every word. Imagine what life experience or background might lead a person to have this belief. Whether true or false, this person’s perception is a fact. To move forward on an initiative involving Syrian group identity, the reality of each perspective might best need to be accounted for.

This Prime Actor participant sees Syrian environmental threats as centered at Level 1, in which an environmental crisis  in the next 20 years will cause the deaths of a significant part of the population. 

"We know the water crisis has a lot to do with this, and that the water crisis was killing people before. It was a trigger. The war is a bigger killer now. The Arab Spring was probably a bigger causal factor to the war than water." (239312) 

This Prime Actor participant sees Syrian environmental threats as centered at Level 6, in which there will be no serious resource crisis in the next 20 years: 

"Syria is an agricultural country. We would have no shortages." (230713

When you can imagine how other Prime Actors could hold these perceptions, you will be better positioned to partner, plan, and implement initiatives in Syria.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. The Dilemma

2. The Range of Disagreement

3. The Question

4. Read Closely, Listen, Learn

5. TABLE OF CONTENTS

6. Development in Syria (Chart)

7. Work Within Syria & Environmental Threats

8. Strengthening Syrian Capacity to Handle Environmental Threats One Step At A Time

9.  Round 3 Statements (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017)

10. Round 2 Statements (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016) 

11. Round 1 Statements (Jan 2016 - May 2016)

DEVELOPMENT IN SYRIA

WORK WITHIN SYRIA & ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS:

The thick brown line represents a likely environmental crisis that will cause the deaths of a significant part of the population

The thick brown line represents the most conservative assessment of Syria's capacity to respond to environmental threats, that it is likely that in the next 20 years the country will experience an environmental crisis that will disrupt the infrastructure of the country. Any investment or venture into Syria would be well served by taking the prediction of an environmental crisis seriously, and acting accordingly.  

STRENGTHENING SYRIAN CAPACITY TO RESPOND TO ENVIRONMENTAL THREATS ONE STEP AT A TIME

If you aim too high: destructive overreach

Projects and agreements in the red area of the chart are overly ambitious and, at best, will be a waste of time. More likely, they will drive confusion and corruption into the country. 

The capacity of the Iraqi state to respond to environmental threats was similarly overestimated following the spring 2003 invasion. In particular, the United States failed to recognize the country’s vulnerability to energy resource shortages, and instead enacted many programs based on the faulty assumption that such resource shortages did not pose any serious threat (level 6).  As a result, inappropriate practices and projects drove confusion and corruption into Iraqi society with disastrous results.

The most blatant overestimation of Iraq’s ability to counteract environmental threats in general, and resource shortages in particular, was the construction of the Fallujah Water Treatment Plant. Assuming that there was no threat of an energy shortage (level 6), this $108 million project was carried out in the hope of providing clean water to the region, thus reducing the impact of plagues and diseases (a level 7 goal). In actuality, the use of high-tech generators required a constant supply of fuel, which made the plant vulnerable to sporadic fuel shortages. Rather than providing clean water and preventing disease among the population of Fallujah, which was the intention behind the project, the waste water treatment plan ended up consuming more than $100 million in reconstruction funds and was only able to operate at about 38% of its intended capacity.