Global Warming

Dimension 17 of 17

We wanted to learn about how sovereign Syria is, and how well it is able to control its borders. We listened to a wide range of local, regional, and international actors influential in the life of Syria. We received a wide range of responses, for example: 

"Most of the people don't know what global warming means." (230784)

"[I] wish the world temperature would increase by 10 - 15 degrees. It would get rid of Assad. We are all dying anyway." (230713)

"They don't know what it is. It's nobody's priority. It would be a surprise if even the government EPA office in Damascus talks about it. People don't know if they will live until tomorrow." (233911)

"There are droughts and water access is a huge problem in parts of the country. It is progressing. It is causing dislocation of former inhabitants." (232272)

"It isn't discussed at all." (231642)

"Because of the revolution this is a very low concern of the regime. Syrians in general are far more concerned with genocide and mass murder. It is a leisure consideration." (233081)

"It may not matter now. It impacts them." (239311)

"It isn't a priority for the country right now. They understand the concept, but no one cares at this point." (235781)

"Syria never developed anything involving global warming. It never went to conferences or did research on the  subject. We don't produce carbon in the air." (233881)

"Syria was net carbon-negative before the war and still is." (238341)

"Syria does not generate a lot of carbon waste. This is a concern to the developed countries, not Syria. Maybe Damascus, but it's minimal. Even the oil extraction is minimal. There is no awareness among the people. Right now they are looking for a piece of bread." (231641)

"MENA is the region most susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Global warming is a luxury concern, not for Syria. They are dying anyway." (238631)

"It isn't their concern, although it has affected them." (239312)

Is runaway global warming an existential threat to Syria? Is the country net-carbon negative and their is nothing more Syrians can do? Why does this matter in the choice of partners, the design of initiatives, and the implementation of those initiatives? Read more to find out.

ABOUT INCA DIMENSION #17:

GLOBAL WARMING

The threat of global warming Syria by people is the 17th of 17 dimensions in Syrian society that influential local, regional, and international actors assessed and discussed through 3 rounds of interviews and feedback, beginning in January, 2016. Taken together, the 17 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria and its people. Interview participants assessed the capacity of each dimension, represented by the y-axis; higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats.

Global warming is important because it will force increasing larger disruptions to all aspects of Syrian life.  Responding to the threat of global warming is an opportunity for Syrians to strengthen their shared Syrian national identity, sovereignty, and national capacity. Based on the 8-level hierarchy described in the question below, participants from 27 influential organizations assessed Syria's response to global warming at different levels at this time in history, from as low as Level 3 to as high as Level 8. (At the bottom of this page, you can read statements interview participants gave to support their assessments.)

The Question

Runaway global warming is arguably the greatest threat facing the human race. Which level best describes the country’s response to global warming? (If two seem equal, name the higher level.)

1.     Global warming is denied or ignored, except in small pockets of the population.

2.     Global warming is recognized, but its relationship with carbon emissions is denied or ignored, except in pockets of the population.

3.     Global warming is recognized, but there is little public investment for research for solutions to lower carbon emissions.

4.     Global warming is recognized. There is significant but inadequate public investment into research for solutions to lower carbon emissions

5.     Global warming is well understood. There are perceived solutions but they are only being implemented slowly.

6.     Global warming is well understood. The country has a national plan to become a net-zero, or carbon-neutral country. The strategy is explicit, understood, embraced by the country as a whole, and being implemented aggressively.

7.     This country is net carbon-neutral, including or excluding offsets

8.     This country is net carbon-negative.

READ CLOSELY, IMAGINE, LEARN

Read each statement below closely. Assume the person who wrote this is sincere; they believe every word. Imagine what life experience or background might lead a person to have this belief. Whether true or false, this person’s perception is a fact. To move forward on an initiative involving Syria's control of its borders, the reality of each perspective might need to be accounted for.

This Prime Actor participant sees Syrian Group Identity as centered at Level 1, a struggle for survival and sovereignty:

"They don't know what it is. It's nobody's priority. It would be a surprise if even the government EPA office in Damascus talks about it. People don't know if they will live until tomorrow." (233911)

A different Prime Actor participant sees Syrian Group Identity as centered at Level 8, net-carbon negative as a country: 

"Syria does not generate a lot of carbon waste. This is a concern to the developed countries, not Syria. Maybe Damascus, but it's minimal. Even the oil extraction is minimal. There is no awareness among the people. Right now they are looking for a piece of bread." (231641)

When you can imagine how other Prime Actors could hold these perceptions, you will be better positioned to partner, plan, and implement initiatives in Syria.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. INCA Dimension #17: Global Warming & Syria

2. The Question

3. Work Within Syria & Global Warming

4. Strengthening Syrian Capacity to Handle Global Warming One Step At A Time

5. The Range Has Yet To Shrink

7. Round 3 Statements (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017)

8. Round 2 Statements (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016)

9. Round 1 Statements (Jan 2016 - May 2016)

DEVELOPMENT IN SYRIA

WORK WITHIN SYRIA & GLOBAL WARMING

The thick brown line represents denial or ignorance of global warming

The thick brown line represents the most conservative assessment of Syria's response to global warming, ignorance and denial, except for small pockets of the population.  Any investment or venture into Syria or with refugee Syrians would do well to assume little knowledge of, or support for, any actions to slow global warming that require sacrifice. 

STRENGTHENING SYRIAN CAPACITY TO HANDLE GLOBAL WARMING ONE STEP AT A TIME

Aim just right: raise awareness of global warming and climate change

The green area of the chart, from levels 1 to 2, indicates where projects to strengthen Syrian capacity to respond to global warming will be most likely to succeed, by raising awareness of global warming and climate change. An example is the work of the Arab Youth Climate Movement. These young people work to raise awareness of global warming and climate change in a number of Arab countries.  

If you aim too high: destructive overreach

Projects and agreements in the red area of the chart are overly ambitious and, at best, will be a waste of time. More likely, they will drive confusion and corruption into the country. An example would be public information campaigns aimed at general awareness of the association between carbon emissions and global warming (level 3). If implemented in Syria, this attempted leap from ignorance or denial of global warming (level 1) to widespread acceptance of its link with anthropogenic carbon emissions level 3) would be too much to do at once! Without a consensus affirming the existence of global warming (level 2) already in place, efforts to gain public acceptance of its anthropogenic nature are doomed to failure.

Concern over global warming in post-invasion Iraqi society was at a similarly low level in the spring of 2003. The United States failed to recognize this and instead enacted many programs based on the faulty assumption that Iraqis understood global warming and were prepared to embark on projects aimed at reducing carbon emissions (level 5). As a result, inappropriate practices and projects drove confusion and corruption into Iraqi society with disastrous results.

The overestimation of Iraq’s ability to address global warming was exemplified by the U.S.-funded program to renovate the Quds power plant. Assuming that Iraqis understood global warming and were prepared to carry out projects aimed at the reducing carbon emissions (level 5 ), the U.S. spent $238 million to renovate the Quds power plant and equip it with new turbines that would reduce carbon emissions through an advanced filtration system and the use of clean-burning natural gas. This project was intended to be the first step toward national implementation of similar measures to reduce carbon emissions (a level 6 goal). In actuality, however, neither the workers at the power plant nor the Iraqi government saw the benefit of using the turbines due to the fact that they required a higher grade of fuel and were thus more expensive to run. Rather than reduce the emissions from energy generation at the plant, which was the intention behind the project, the renovation of the Quds power plant ultimately sunk millions of dollars of foreign money into cleaner technologies that Iraq didn’t understand or value the benefit of investing in.