Syrian Economic and Cultural Capacity:
Inclusion of Marginalized Groups

A Phase IV assessment

In the chart below, 8 dimensions of Syria’s economic and cultural capacity are shown, from left (“Economy”) to right (“Religion”). Taken together, the 8 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria’s capacity to govern itself.

The Inclusion of Marginalized Groups is important because it reveals the capacity of the country to solve political problems, increase its human resources, and decrease the costs to the country of exclusion or repression. The more Syria can include its marginalized populations, the more effectively the country will respond to existential threats.

The Question

Marginalized groups are those excluded from mainstream social, economic, cultural, or political life, for example: particular ethnic, religious, geographic, or socio-economic groups, those without housing, the mentally ill or physically disabled, or prisoners. Which of these levels of development is the dominant mode of this country?

The Levels

6. There is legal acceptance and equality for marginalized groups composed of citizens of the country. (This was the highest level chosen.)

5. There is legal acceptance and equality for marginalized groups, but informal discrimination.

4. Marginalized groups are protected from unpredictable violence, but there is legal discrimination.

3. Marginalized groups are protected from neglect but many members face violent abuse.
(2.6 was the average of the levels chosen.)
2. Marginalized groups are protected from mass killing, but many member die from neglect.

1. Mass killing of members of a marginalized group. (This was the lowest level chosen, and the level most often chosen.)

25 prime actors participated in determining the ability of Syria to respond to existential threats based on its current inclusion of marginalized groups.

In the chart, higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats, from Level 1 (very weak) to 8 (very strong).

The highest rating: light green.
The average rating: a triangle.
The level identified most often: a cross.
The lowest rating: dark green

Level 6: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Civil Society as best characterized as Level 6:

There is legal acceptance and equality for marginalized groups composed of citizens of the country.

A Round 3 participant stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):

“It's not possible to know how many people are marginalized or what is happening specifically to them.” (238631)

A Round 2 participant stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):

"The regime marginalized everyone in the country. The mentally ill, the handicapped, raped have become the majority. The war in Syria is worse than WWII. Even the millions of refugees are voiceless now." (221641)

Level 5: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Civil Society as best characterized as Level 5:

There is legal acceptance and equality for marginalized groups composed of citizens of the country, but informal discrimination.

Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):

“Before the revolution there were marginalized groups, economically, politically, by health. Whole regions were marginalized. They didn't get education, health.” (233881)

“There was formal discrimination against the Kurds. It changed after 2011 because the context shifted. There may be many informal discriminations we are not aware of.” (235781)

Level 4: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Civil Society as best characterized as Level 4:

Marginalized groups are protected from unpredictable violence, but there is legal discrimination.

A Round 3 participant stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):

“The Alawite minority controls Syria and marginalizes the majority. At this point if you pass a checkpoint with ID from a town with a history of rebellion you will automatically be arrested.” (236592)

Level 3: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Civil Society as best characterized as Level 3:

Marginalized groups are protected from neglect but many members face violent abuse.

Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):

“When Hafez Al Assad came to power, the Baath Party leading the country was put into the constitution. It has not changed. This was why people demanded freedom and rights in the revolution. The groups united against the regime. The Kurds were double marginalized.” (231641)

“It depends on which part of Syria.” (232272)

“Abuse against most of the population, done against the dominant groups, not the marginalized. 10 million are now homeless. 1 million are dead. The marginalized (Alawi) control everything. They are only 1 million.” (233081)

Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2017):

"There is violence toward the majority of the population from the regime, before the war, during, and now. Nationalism exists everywhere in Syria." (223881)

"Assad is mass murdering, but he is only able to reach parts of the country." (222272)

"It's looking only at what the Syrian government (Assad) is capable of doing. It doesn't factor in the opposition groups or Kurds." (222272)

Level 1: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Civil Society as best characterized as Level 1:

Mass killing of members of the marginalized group.

Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):

“The political minority is being exterminated by the regime.” (233911)

“For example, the Islamic State parts. The Arab population governed by PYD and PKK were kicked out of villages with accusations they collaborated with the government.” (231642)

“Half of the country is homeless as IDPs or refugees. There is no empathy for them from the regime.” (234281)

“It's mass killing of all residents.” (235931)

“It depends on which marginalized group. It varies. Even in the rump state the mix of factions have varying degrees of control or freedom. Outside of that it can be worse. It's been that way ever since the French took over. They grouped the minorities together against the Sunni. That's the state that Hafez Al Assad inherited.” (239311)

“The minority groups are in power. Sunni are treated as an enemy. Rebels often kill groups when they win. Officers sometimes act, perhaps independently of orders. The Islamic State is another problem altogether.” (239312)