Syrian Economic and Cultural Capacity:
Group Identity
A Phase IV assessment
In the chart below, 8 dimensions of Syria’s economic and cultural capacity are shown, from left (“Economy”) to right (“Religion”). Taken together, the 8 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria’s capacity to govern itself.
Group identity is important because it reveals the capacity of the population to work together to solve shared threats. The more inclusive group identity is in Syria, the more able the country is to respond effectively to existential threats.
The Question
We all have multiple group identities and loyalties—as family members, workers, members of ethnic and language groups, communities of faith, of shared history, and of different geopolitical units. If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, which identity would win the tug-of-war?
The Levels
6. Their country. (This was the highest level chosen and the level most often chosen.)
5. Their state, region, or province.
(4.3 was the average of the levels chosen.)
4. Their ethnic group, religious group, or political party.
3. Their village or tribe.
2. Their families, friends, gang, or profession. (This was the lowest level chosen.)
25 prime actors participated in determining the ability of Syria to respond to existential threats based on its current civil society.
In the chart, higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats, from Level 1 (very weak) to 8 (very strong).
- The highest rating: light green.
- The average rating: a triangle.
- The level identified most often: a cross.
- The lowest rating: dark green
Level 6: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian technological innovation as best characterized as Level 6:
If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, their identity with their country would win the tug-of-war.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"In Syria we don't speak about ethnicity or group, only the country." (230784)
"There are a few radical religious, but most don't want a religious leadership. Syria itself was never radical. Bashar divided the country between Sunni and Alawi. In general, the Syrian people love the Kurds, and all minority groups." (230713)
"Since the war started 5 years ago everyone is remembering their roots, whether it's ethnic or religious. That's why it has been sectarian. The Kurds want autonomy. In the south they want their emirate. This can't happen without international will. There are now at least 4 sections, Kurds, IS, opposition, and the regime. The majority want Syria to stay unified, besides IS. Each sector wants to expand for influence. The people have no say. There are at least 9 foreign military bases in the country. There are foreigners from at least 40 different countries fighting in Syria. Whoever has arms and money dictates the rules. This is a normal result from 5 years of war." (233881)
"The doctors continue to work because they see it as their duty to the country and people. Everybody is thinking of their country as a whole." (232631)
"We need to think at a universal level, otherwise we will fall into an ethnic war." (230792)
"The Riyadh group is not pushing out minorities. There are no minorities anymore. The Alawi, Druze, Kurds, Christians have improved lives since the war. Only the Yazidis are hurt because of ISIL. The war affects the majority." (231211)
"The revolution started within the people. They started demanding simple rights, voting and improved laws. The regime refused and responded with violence. After 6 - 8 months the regime released 11,000 prisoners (Sednaya Prison), who were terrorists, so they could attack the citizens. The thought was to change the vision of the protesters, to convince them an Islamist government is better than a secular one by use of force. It was done to make the people think that without the regime they can't control the terrorists. They seem to have been successful. The revolution is no longer peaceful, which gives Al Assad justification to use chemical weapons and other extreme violence." (233081)
"We all believe this is our country. We need to find a way to end the war." (235931)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
"Loyalty should be to the country, not the whole world." (223881)
"This is the most important thing for the country. It's for everybody. It's what we hope for." (222172)
"They always identify first as Syrian, but lately ethnic and religious divides are growing. This did not exist before the war." (229051)
Level 5: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian technological innovation as best characterized as Level 5:
If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, their identity with their state, region, or province would win the tug-of-war.
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2017):
"After 5 years of war in Syria the conflict is becoming more sectarian, so they are each recruiting more of their own sects to join them. Since the government is no longer there, people draw closer to the people around them. Now everything is sectarianism and nationalism. Syria is divided among Shia, Kurds, and Arabs. The Riyadh group is ignoring minority rights. There is not an urban-rural divide. The committee is trying to push out the Yazidis, Kurds, etc." (221641)
"When the war started most Syrians went to their pre-country identity. In the north it is ethnic. In others it can be village or religious." (223911)
"Displaced people don't necessarily join their ethnic-religious groups. Some go to Damascus." (228631)
Round 1 participants stated (Jan 2016 - May 2016):
"Sometimes [a national identity] depending on region" and "Depends on region and degree of urbanization. More urban areas may choose [national identity]. More rural will choose [regional or provincial identity]. The same with the Kurds and Alawi." (218752)
Level 4: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian technological innovation as best characterized as Level 4:
If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, their identity with their ethnic group, religious group, or political party would win the tug-of-war.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"In the 5 years since the war began, everyone has gone back to their roots. It is divided. The Kurds are loyal to the Kurds first, regardless of where they are. The Arabs are divided by religious lines." (231641)
"[People do not want] to be separated into groups, but there is no larger entity, so they have no choice. International concerns have changed everything. If it had been left to Syrians they would have reached an agreement early on. Outside support fed it." (238631)
"There is a growing ethnic divide. To some extent the Syrian government targeted all the groups outside government control. Those targeted groups became very wary of the government. The division among opposition groups and armed groups is also growing." (232272)
"The Kurds' ethnic affiliation has become even more important over the last years." (231642);
"The Kurds have started initiatives for independence. When the Kurds separate, sectarian divisions will follow." (234281)
"People stick to their religion, and there are a number of them. Some, like Kurds, identify with their ethnic group." (238341)
Level 3: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian technological innovation as best characterized as Level 3:
If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, their identity with their village, tribe, town, or city would win the tug-of-war.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"Tribal Factions are more pronounced in the south, but exist all over the country." (233911)
Response to a Round 2 comment: "[The Riyadh Group] are not ignoring minority rights. [Minorities] are represented in the agency. In Aleppo, there is fully an urban-rural divide. It's classic Marxist theory. Poor rural people working in factories have attacked the urban owners of the factories. The armed opposition in Aleppo are from the Aleppo province, not the city."(233911)
"There are about 1500 or so armed militias, geographically limited by village or tribe. Ethnic and religious affiliations play in too. As in Lebanon, these groups sometimes fight, even if they are from the same tribe but different regions, just to protect what is theirs. We will find that in Raqqa with the Kurds. They may not be able to hold an Arab city." (239311)
Level 2: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian technological innovation as best characterized as Level 2:
If there were a conflict of loyalties and the people in this country had to choose between the pull of one level of their identity and another, their identity with their families, friends, gang, or profession would win the tug-of-war.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"The refugees [I talk to see] their families as most important." (233531)
"Family is considered in an extended sense, including perhaps 5th cousins." (233121)
"Families matter the most, but some members may prioritize the ethnic-religious group as a bigger family." (235781)
"The family connections are strongest at this stage. Our identities are all layered. This is the natural progression of layers." (236592)
"A lot of people are intermarried, ex. Alawite-Kurd. Family matters more than the ethnic or religious group. Meritocracy was very difficult to introduce because it made more sense to hire a cousin. It isn't as rigid as Saudi Arabia or Iraq. Because family and tribe often coincide, sectarian violence is easy to justify, as in blood feuds. Violent outbreaks often have to do with revenge, sometimes ancient revenge, for family insults which have been squelched by a strong government until the war." (239312)