Sovereign Capacity:
International Reputation
A Phase IV assessment
In the chart below, 5 dimensions of Syria’s capacity to govern itself are shown, from left (“Distribution of Power”) to right (“International Reputation”). Taken together, the 5 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria’s capacity to govern itself.
International Reputation is important because outside investment—whether from private capital markets; multilateral organizations like the World Bank; development funds like UNDP, DFID, or USAID; foundation-backed NGOs; independent businesses; or Syria expats—depends heavily on reputation. The better Syria's international reputation, the more freedom the country will have to solve existential threats.
The Question
This question looks at a country’s international relations through a simple lens of attraction or repulsion. Which level is the dominant mode of this country? The country’s relationships with other countries are generally:
6. Positive with most countries, negative with some. (This was the highest level chosen.)
5. Neutral with most countries, positive with some.
4. Neutral with most countries, negative with some.
(3.1 was the average of the levels chosen.)
3. Negative with most countries, positive with some.(This was the level most often chosen.)
2. Negative with most countries, neutral with some.
1. Negative. (This was the lowest level chosen.)
25 prime actors participated in determining the ability of Syria to respond to existential threats based on its current international reputation.
In the chart, higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats, from Level 1 (very weak) to 8 (very strong).
- The highest rating: light green.
- The average rating: a triangle.
- The level identified most often: a cross.
- The lowest rating: dark green
Level 6: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syria's International as best characterized as Level 6:
Positive with most countries, negative with some.
A Round 3 participant stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
“It has allies in Iran and Russia. Alliances are based on interests and change.” (232631)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
"Politically you cannot refuse to have relations with other countries. If you want a political solution for Syria you would like to have relations with countries that interact with Syria. [Better] to have closer relations with the ones that help, but some sort with all, because they will still have influence. Turkey's invasion was not to stop ISIL. It was to contain the Kurds." (221641)
"The free regions are negative with Iran and Russia." (222172)
Level 4: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syria's International as best characterized as Level 4:
Neutral with most countries, mostly negative with others.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"Positive with Iran and Russia. With others it mostly has to do with what they can get from it. Syria has no diplomatic relations with most countries." (230713)
"Practically now Syria is under the influence of Iran and Russia. Syria is no longer making its own decisions. The same is true for the Opposition. They have no say. They follow orders." (231641)
"Assad is negative with a lot and positive with some. The same for the opposition. Each have their own backers." (233121)
"Positive only with Russia and Iran" (234281)
"The Assad regime represents the country. It's positive with Russia, Iran, Cuba, maybe Venezuela. The regime is the only legally recognized representative entity." (238341)
"It has allies in North Korea, Venezuela, China, Russia, Iran, and Iraq and Lebanon to a degree." (236592)
"Only positive with a few" (235931)
"Assad has very few friends, Iran and Russia, with help from Hezbollah. He has some luck in that the removal of his regime is low on the priority list of most of the regional actors. The United States was interested, but found no regional interest. Hezbollah, Iran, and Russia want him in power more than the other states want to depose him. They want Assad gone, but are not willing to pay for it. Assad knows that if he loses he is dead, along with his family, the Alawites, and other minorities aligned with him. Russia wants control of Tartus, and killed 100,000 people to do it. While his international reputation is poor, those who support Assad have greater interests in the Sunni not succeeding." (239311)
Level 3: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syria's International as best characterized as Level 3:
Negative with most countries, positive with some
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"It's only positive with three, Russia, Iran, and Lebanon; neutral with Egypt; and they still have an Ambassador at the UN." (238631)
"The nuance is nation vs. regime. Many see this as a fight over the definition of what is Syria. Neither Russia nor Iran are probably comfortable with Assad. They just don't see a better solution. Lebanon sees Assad's actions against them, as in assassinating their prime minister, as very odd, a supposed nationalist aligning with the Shia. It used to be only Iran could move things in Syria until Russia joined in. Iran doesn't like chemical weapons being used in the Middle East, but they can't publicly reprimand Assad. Russia has vastly overestimated Assad's ability to govern effectively." (239312)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
"There are countries who do not take sides because of their relations with Russia, for example. China is keeping a balancing act." (222272)
"Positive with Russia, Iran, and North Korea. Neutral with China and India, but they are not as significant to the region." (226591)
"The country has positive relations with Russia, Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, and representation in the United Nations." (228631)
Level 1: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syria's International as best characterized as Level 1:
Negative.
A Round 3 participant stated (Nov 2016 - Jul 2017):
"Syria has client-type relations with Iran and Russia. ("232272)"
A Round 2 participant stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
"It's not even positive with its own allies, at least the Assad regime. It receives orders from Tehran and Moscow. It's not an equal relationship. Bashar Al Assad is treated like a subordinate. The other side has failed to develop real allies. They have aligned with a number of models, but not cohesively among themselves." (223911)