Sovereign Capacity:
Control of Borders
A Phase IV assessment
In the chart below, 5 dimensions of Syria’s capacity to govern itself are shown, from left (“Distribution of Power”) to right (“International Reputation”). Taken together, the 5 dimensions of the x-axis offer a comprehensive, holistic view of Syria’s capacity to govern itself.
Control of Borders is important because it reveals the capacity of the Syrian military, diplomatic service, economy, and culture to filter influences from outside the country. The greater Syria ability to control its borders, the more effectively the country will be able to respond to existential threats.
The Question
Of the 17 components of national sovereignty considered in this assessment, the most basic is the ability of the country (or self-identified people, or “nation”) to control its national boundaries. Which of these levels of development is the most characteristic of this country?
The Levels
6. The country is able to protect its economic system against unwanted foreign influences, but is not able to protect its political system against unwanted foreign influence. (This was the highest level chosen.)
5. The country is able to manage its guest worker, immigration or refugee flows, but is not able to protect its economic system against unwanted foreign influences.
4. The country is able to protect itself against the mass murders of parts of the population by outsiders or its own people, but is not able to manage its guest worker, immigration or refugee flows.
3. The country is legally recognized as an independent nation-state, but is not able to protect itself against the mass murders of parts of the population by outsiders (invasion or bombing) or its own people (civil war). (This was the level most often chosen.)
(2.3 was the average of the levels chosen.)
2. This country is partially self-governing and stable (i.e., autonomous areas, overseas or dependent areas or territories).
1. This country is consumed with a struggle for survival, or the population is struggling to gain more sovereignty. (This was the lowest level chosen.)
25 prime actors participated in determining the ability of Syria to respond to existential threats based on its current control of its borders.
In the chart, higher levels indicate greater capacity within that dimension for Syrians to respond effectively to existential global threats, from Level 1 (very weak) to 8 (very strong).
- The highest rating: light green.
- The average rating: a triangle.
- The level identified most often: medium green, or, if the same as the highest or lowest, a cross.
- The lowest rating: dark green
Level 6: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Control of Borders as best characterized as Level 6:
The country is able to protect its economic system against unwanted foreign influences, but is not able to protect its political system against unwanted foreign influence.
A Round 3 participant stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):
"During the Hafez Al Assad regime and the Iranian revolution Iran exported the idea of the Shia Crescent. In most of Syria the Alawi (supported by Iran) opened centers to encourage people to convert from Sunni to Shia. They got salaries and monthly rewards. It was run by Jamil Al Assad (brother of Hafez). It is still running under the name of Imam Mortada. It is going on in Egypt now." (230713)
Level 5: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Control of Borders as best characterized as Level 5:
The country is able to manage its guest worker, immigration or refugee flows, but is not able to protect its economic system against unwanted foreign influences.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):
"Neither Russia nor Iran control Syrian borders. The opposition controls the open borders. Jordan controls the south, the PYD the Kurdish areas. The Turkish invasion is no different than Russian or western border incursions. It doesn't reflect long-term control. (233911)
"The conflict started as internal, then became regional, then international. At that point Syria [could] no longer control its borders. Syrians are stripped of the right to speak their opinion. The borders are a secondary concern." (233881)
"It is a legally recognized country, but controlled by other groups and easily infiltrated by other countries." (238631)
"There are parts of Syria that are more stable and self-governing, but by and large that is not the case." (233121)
"The legal part of the country (the south) is involved in its own mass murder." (235781)
"The country does not have control over its borders." (233081)
"Half of the border is outside Syrian control." (236592)
"It's not really a civil war. It's the government that's killing our people." (235931)
"Assad still has a regime. He probably couldn't do that without outside political support. Most of the fighting groups are now Islamist with long term grievances against Assad. It is doubtful Assad could ever control the violence or govern those areas without ethnic cleansing. Even if Assad survives Syria will not likely be whole again. His relationship with Iran and Hezbollah will not be forgotten. Those interests have compromised their sovereignty. Arab nationalism is gone, from other states too, vs. Islamism. The Islamic State is a bunch of Shis who decided to kill Kurds and Christians, ethnic cleansing. Christians and Alawites are afraid the Sunnis are coming for them. Christians and governments seem to be aligning together in Syria and some other Arab states like Egypt." (239312)
Level 3: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Control of Borders as best characterized as Level 3:
The country is legally recognized as an independent nation-state, but is not able to protect itself against the mass murders of parts of the population by outsiders (invasion or bombing) or its own people (civil war).
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):
"There is no country that can control its borders. Even the United States can't control its border with Mexico. Through social media you can cross borders anywhere. We all are in contact with each other. There are no real borders. The Syrian regime managed to isolate the people under Hafez, but Bashar could not continue it because of technology. Most nations are affected by Wall Street. Loyalties and education differ from one country to another."' (233881)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
"It's a legally recognized country, but people are being murdered by its government and foreign jihadists, Sunni and Shia." (223911)
"The way the country controls its borders defines it. It kept that control until Russia the United States, and Hezbollah entered the war. It used to have complete control of the borders and any influences allowed in. Russia and Iran control the country now, especially Russia." (229051)
"The Turkish invasion of the north and the presence of foreign fighters demonstrates the country cannot control their borders." (228631)
Level 1: Participants made the following statements to support their assessment of Syrian Control of Borders as best characterized as Level 1:
The country is consumed with a struggle for survival, or the population is struggling to gain more sovereignty.
Round 3 participants stated (Nov 2016 - July 2017):
“Culturally it can protect its borders, but not politically. The universities, schools, etc., protect the Arab culture successfully." (230784)
“Syria doesn't control any borders except with Lebanon. In the north the borders are controlled, in part, by the PYD, in part by the Turkish government, and in part by the Islamists. The eastern part is controlled by IS. The south is controlled by Islamist military factions." (231641)
“The government is only part of the country. It is recognized, but not necessarily representative." (232272)
“The country is struggling to regain its power and legal recognition." (232631)
“There is no country now. The decisions belong to Iran and Russia. It used to be the Alawi, no longer. It is all outside. There is no border." (231211)
“All levels are partially true. Syria is legally recognized, but it's not stable. Assad controls a rump state, and has influence outside of it, but does not control the whole area within the borders. There are the free Syrian forces, Islamic State, and ethnic divisions in the south. The Sunni areas are internally contested by Islamic State, Al Nusra, etc. Assad controls an allegiance of minority groups. Syria exists as a legal entity on the map only. It's like the Balkans or Lebanon in the '80s." (239311)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug 2016 - Oct 2016):
“We used to live in a country whose leaders had the mentality of the mafia. They called it Assad's Syria. Some people were his slaves. Others were left with nothing." (225662)
"The borders are not a matter of a big problem, ISIL is a big problem, but it's diminishing. It's only a matter of months until they are suppressed. It's not a matter of the neighbors." (222272)
"We are trying to spread the freed regions all over the country. They are connecting the local councils, preparing in case the Assad regime vanishes so they can continue governing, assuming there are no terrorist organizations, including the Assad regime." (222172)