Ninety-six (96) local, regional, and international organizations and entities (prime actors) have been identified as influential in the life of Syria. In the chart below, the left column ranks the prime actors from most influential in shaping the life in Syria (Russia) to the least influential (Relief International).
The chart also shows the classification of prime actors into five stances indicating the actor's support and contribution to inclusive nationalism for Syria, starting from the most committed (Core) to the least committed (Saboteur).
Amount of influence of Turkey in the life of Syria, and the commitment of Turkey to inclusive nationalism for Syria.
25 prime actors participated in the following:
- Determining the rank of Turkey according to the amount of its influence on life in Syria. As shown in the chart below, Turkey ranked 5th most influential prime actor.
- Assessing and classifying Turkey according to its commitment to inclusive nationalism for Syria (also indicated in the same row by the colored rectangle). Of the 25 prime actors who participated in the assessments, more agreed that Turkey falls under the category of 'Opportunistic'. A prime actor assessed as Opportunistic is seen as willing to build a sovereign, stable, inclusive, and developing Syria, but only when it serves its own interests.
In response to the question, “How is Turkey important in the life of Syria?”
Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):
"They border Syria. They are very invested. Militarily, they could do more. They have one of the strongest militaries in the world. Erdogan doesn't like Assad, but doesn't want Syria to break up and release the Kurds.” (239312)
"They have major troops on the ground. They house the opposition and 3.5 million refugees. Turkey controls the pipeline of refugees to Europe. Turkey has both proxy and direct fighters. It will remain influential because of the Kurdish issue.” (236592)
"It is a neighbor state with a large border. It has interests that overlap with the Kurdish question. They are very critical of the PYD. They have supported some of the armed groups, even the Islamic ideology.” (231642)
"They are in Syria with Operation Euphrates Shield. They have taken in millions of refugees. Turkey's relations with different Kurdish groups impacts Syria.” (233121)
"Being a strong neighbor they have an interest. They are interested in the demographics because of the Kurds. They have an interest in Islam in the region. They deal with refugees well.” (235781)
"They support the opposition.” (236371)
"They did a great thing by taking in so many refugees. Still, they are influenced by the United States. They are now more concerned with the PKK and PYD.” (230713)
"The Syrian people feel that Erdogan will be a good leader.” (231211)
"They support the opposition and have the largest number of refugees. They are a party to the negotiations.” (238631)
"Turkey is the country that has done the most for Syria and its refugees. [About an Round 1 comment on the Escandaron—] It actually took place after WWI. The people of Escandaron opted to be part of Turkey by a referendum.” (234281)
Round 2 participants stated (Aug. 2016 - Oct. 2017):
"Turkey supported the opposition since before the revolution. When the Muslim Brotherhood was banned in Syria they went to Turkey. Most opposition groups hold their meetings in Turkey. They are one of the most important players in the conflict. The war is a national security issue to Turkey. They finance it. They take in refugees. The Turkmen are a minority in Syria. They support some fighting brigades. They do not want Turkish and Syrian Kurds to unite. Fighting ISIL is a lie to cover their fight against Kurdish advancements. They place the refugee camps to separate the Syrian and Turkish Kurds." (221641)
"Turkey has a leading role in the opposition, and hosts refugees." (226591)
"They maintain a conduit of arms to the opposition and are its largest sponsor." (223911)
"They are the gatekeepers for access from the north." (221951)
"The Syrian people feel that Erdogan will be a good leader." (221211)
"Turkey is a border country and hosts many refugees." (228631)
"They are willing to support the opposition." (226591)
Round 1 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - May 2016):
"They have been very helpful since day one." (21263)
"Turkey houses the Syrian Coalition." (218631)
"They took part of Syria after WWII, Escandaron. Bashar gave it to Turkey. Alawi living there moved to Syria. The Alawi were sent to Russia and eastern Europe for higher education and returned to replace country officials. This sparked the current revolution." (21121111)
"Two-and-a-half million Syrians live there now. Turkey supports lots of armed groups." (215261)