THREAT:
Lebanon

A Phase III assessment


Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a collapsed Lebanon and aggressive Hezbollah is important because Lebanon neighbors Syria, and many familial, economic, and social ties bind the two countries.

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of the threat of a collapsed Lebanon and aggressive Hezbollah relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a collapsed Lebanon and aggressive Hezbollah ranked 4th most important.
Syria R3 Threat from Lebanon.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a collapsed Lebanon and aggressive Hezbollah— 

A Round 3 participant stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"From outsiders and insiders, including ISIL, there are a lot of casualties. When they capture territories everyone commits retaliatory executions. It's true of Hezbollah, the Kurds, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime. It's much more than accidental casualties. It is apparent: the intentional killing of civilians, murder." (239312)