THREAT:
Climate Warming

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of climate warming is important because runaway heating could ruin of Syrian agriculture and making the country uninhabitable in summer. (This threat is likely assessed artificially high because we asked questions specifically about it.) 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

• Determining the importance of the threat of Climate Warming relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of the Climate Warming ranked 3rd most important.
• Assessing and classifying the progression of the Syrian response to climate warming (indicated in the same row by the colored rectangle). Of the 25 prime actors who participated in the assessments, more agreed that climate warming falls under the category of '0: Ignorance of threat'. These prime actors are not aware of climate warming as a threat to the country. 

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of climate warming— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"Most of the people don't know what global warming means." (230784)

"I wish the world temperature would increase by 10 - 15 degrees. It would get rid of Assad. We are all dying anyway." (230713)

"They don't know what it is. It's nobody's priority. It would be a surprise if even the government EPA office in Damascus talks about it. People don't know if they will live until tomorrow." (233911)

"It isn't discussed at all." (231642)

"Because of the revolution this is a very low concern of the regime. Syrians in general are far more concerned with genocide and mass murder. It is a leisure consideration." (233081)

"There is no infrastructure to do research on global warming." (233121)

"It isn't a priority for the country right now. They understand the concept, but no one cares at this point." (235781)

"Syria never developed anything involving global warming. It never went to conferences or did research on the   subject. We don't produce carbon in the air." (233881)

"Syria was net carbon-negative before the war and still is." (238341)

"Syria does not generate a lot of carbon waste. This is a concern to the developed countries, not Syria. Maybe Damascus, but it's minimal. Even the oil extraction is minimal. There is no awareness among the people. Right now they are looking for a piece of bread." (231641)

"MENA is the region most susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Global warming is a luxury concern, not for Syria. They are dying anyway." (238631)

"It isn't their concern, although it has affected them." (239312)

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"No [solution] can be implemented now in Syria." (223881)

"Syria is a first victim country of global warming. A ten-year drought led to massive displacement to cities, then joblessness." (218752)

"Sometimes [authoritarian-like control to manage the crisis], depending on region." (215261)

“Syria is too far behind to do anything about this. This is a matter for the developed world." (221641)

"In Syria there is no desert. The part that is like desert is fertile, but the Assad regime would not allow agriculture. This could help the ozone layer and carbon reductions. The Syrian nation is very educated and ready to be aware of this danger. There is no current awareness, but within 20 years there could be. The regime is causing global warming by running a refinery in Homs, and many other factories." (220291)

"They have no idea what global warming is." (223911)

"This is the last thing they think about now." (221211)