Sunni Crisis

A Phase III assessment


Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a Sunni crisis is important because of its potential to destabilize Syria because of Syria's large Sunni population, and because of the sense of responsibility Syria has for its Sunni residents.  

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of a Sunni crisis to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a Sunni crisis ranked 25th most important. 
Syria R3 Threat of Sunni crisis.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a Sunni crisis— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

“[Because of] colonial history, the Sunnis feel like victims on multiple levels. ‘Why is God punishing us?’ Arabs suffered colonialism, rejected it, and still suffer a lack of sovereignty.” (239312)

“Relative to animus to others, the Sunnis see the others as either perpetrator or bystanders, which is why the Islamic State has a fertile ground to work in.” (239311)

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"There are threats from the Sunnis to Alawites and their neighbors." (215261)