THREAT:
Turkey

A Phase III assessment


Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a hostile Turkey is important because Turkey neighbors Syria, with a strong military and an increasingly autocratic government in conflict with Kurdish organizations. 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of the threat of a hostile Turkey to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a hostile Turkey ranked 12th most important.
Syria R3 Threat from Turkey.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a hostile Turkey— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

“The [Assad] regime instigated the problems between the PKK and Turkey. The people are good, but the [Turkish] regime is a perpetrator.” (230784)

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"There are threats from Turkey to the Kurds" (215261”