THREAT:
Sunni-Shia Conflict

A Phase III assessment

 

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a Sunni-Shia crisis is important because of its potential to trigger a sectarian Syrian civil war. 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of a Sunni-Shia crisis to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a Sunni-Shia crisis ranked 24th most important. 
Syria R3 Threat of Sunni-Shia conflict.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a Sunni-Shia conflict— 

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"There are threats from the Sunnis to Alawites and their neighbors." (215261)