Arab Spring

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of another Arab Spring is important because of its potential to destabilize Syria, as has already happened. 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of another Arab Spring to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of another Arab Spring ranked 22nd most important. 
Syria R3 Threat of Arab Spring.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of another Arab Spring— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"The Arab Spring was probably a bigger causal factor to the war than water." (239312)