THREAT:
Drought

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of drought is important because it could ruin Syrian agriculture, which makes up a sixth of the national economy

25 prime actors participated in the following:

• Determining the importance of the threat of Drought relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of Drought 10th most important.

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a drought— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"In 10 years a barrel of water will be more expensive than a barrel of oil." (233881)

"Water is an important. It is not the subject discussed at the moment." (231642)

"We are facing severe consequences from a drought. People don't think of it as an environmental threat. They see the environment as a luxury concern." (236592)

"There are droughts and water access is a huge problem in parts of the country. It is progressing. It is causing dislocation of former inhabitants." (232272)

"We know the water crisis has a lot to do with this, and that the water crisis was killing people before. It was a trigger [for the protests and current war].” (239312)

"Syria has a water shortage and drought problem. It can force people to move." (238631)

"Syria is in the Middle East, subject to drought. [Drought] could disrupt a significant part of the population." (233121)

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"In the years before the revolution there were water shortages leading to economic pressures." (228631)

"Syria is a first victim country of global warming. A 10-year drought led to massive displacement to cities, then joblessness." (218752)

"Most of the former farm land is like the Sahara now. Some rivers have dried up. The harbor is a trickle. The water table in my home city has dropped over 100 feet. It puts national security in danger. The sewage and water infrastructure loss is causing people to drink from sewers. The federalization of Syria will drive the elite to choose the best resourced regions. The Alawi will take the Mediterranean coast." (221641)