Developed Countries

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat to Syria from Developed Countries is important because they might ignore or occupy the country based on preferences having little to do with the best interests of Syrians, and because they might further destabilize and weaken the country with an incompetent reconstruction effort after the end of the war. 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of the threat of Developed Countries relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of Developed Countries ranked 5th most important.
Syria R3 Threat from Developed Countries.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat from developed countries— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"There are many challenges for the coming period, especially the challenge of state-building. If Syria stabilizes then falls apart again the European Union may not be interested in helping. [The US and the EU] may make things worse, like in Iraq. Iraq calmed a bit then reignited worse than before." (238631)

"It's obvious the developed countries have interests in Syria. It's about the energy sector." (233881)

A Round 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"Use the Golan area as a free trade zone. It would be a demilitarized zone. It may be a good solution for any future conflicts with Israel. It would be 70 miles wide. This is the only solution to the Syria-Israel problem. It has been offered by the Legal Authority for Syrian Relations, published by Atlantic Magazine, and covered by CNN." (220291)