THREAT:
Environmental Crisis

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of an environmental crisis is important because it could ruin Syrian agriculture, which comprises a sixth of the national economy.

25 prime actors participated in the following:

• Determining the importance of the threat of an Environmental Crisis relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of an Environmental Crisis ranked 6th most important.

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of an environmental crisis— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"The infrastructure is so degraded." (233531)

"There is no infrastructure to protect people. A political solution from outside would be necessary. The members of the European Union agree they will not fund reconstruction unless all parts of the country can participate in governance. If ISIL damages the dam on the Euphrates, they could cause a lot of environmental problems."

"We are facing severe consequences from a drought. People don't think of it as an environmental threat. They see the environment as a luxury concern." (236592)

Round 1 and 2 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"The freed regions are expecting an environmental catastrophe. The infrastructure is all damaged. Civic organizations are trying to repair as much as possible, but are limited. No one else is trying." (220291)

"Any next government will be managing the [environmental] crisis without experience…. Any political or non-violent change will [again disrupt the country's infrastructure]. If there is no change there will be [even more dislocation of a significant part of the population]." (2138811)

“[Environmental degradation] will be a significant threat." (229051)

"There is no infrastructure left." (215261)

"There were over 1 million environmentally displaced refugees from Syria prior to 2011." (238341)

“[Pollution is a serious threat.] The government of Syria got some nuclear material, leftovers from 25 years ago. It was accepted by Syria and buried there. It causes a threat from cancer and things like that. The oil burning in Kuwait [is another example]. [This] is a region of environmental catastrophes." (221211)