Kurdish Crisis

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a Kurdish crisis is important because of its potential to disrupt Syrian-Turkish relations and Syria's relationship with its own large Kurdish population, and because of the sense of responsibility Syria has for its Kurdish residents.  

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of a Kurdish crisis to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a Kurdish crisis ranked 16th most important.   
Syria R3 Threat of Kurds crisis.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a Kurdish crisis— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"From outsiders and insiders, including ISIL, there are a lot of casualties. When they capture territories everyone commits retaliatory executions. It's true of Hezbollah, the Kurds, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime. It's much more than accidental casualties. It is apparent: the intentional killing of civilians, murder." (239312)

“There is regret for not intervening to stop the attacks on the Kurds and other opposition actions (e.g. the Hama Massacre).” (234281)

“The [Assad] regime instigated the problems between the PKK and Turkey. The people are good, but the [Turkish] regime is a perpetrator.” (230784)

“The Kurds have no perpetrator memories. They see themselves as victims.” (231642”)

“ [After] World War I when borders were shaped the [Kurdish] people [were] divided.” (231642)

A Round 2 participant stated (Jan. 2016 - Oct. 2017):

"There are threats from Turkey to the Kurds." (215261”