Druze Crisis

A Phase III assessment

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a Druze crisis is important because of its potential to disrupt Syrian-Lebanese relations and Syria's relationship with its own large Druze population, and because of the sense of responsibility Syria has for its Druze residents.  

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of a Druze crisis to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a Druze crisis ranked 17th most important. 
Syria R3 Threat of Druze crisis.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a Druze crisis— 

A Round 3 participant responded to the Round 1 statement (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

“Yes, but it didn’t happen.” (231211)

A Round 1 participants stated (Jan. 2016 - May. 2017):

“The Druze almost had an internal war.” (21526)