THREAT:
Iran

A Phase III assessment

 

Twenty-nine (29) existential threats to the country of Syria were identified by prime actors. In the chart below, the left column ranks the threats from the most important to solve (the Assad Regime/Civil War) to the least (chemical weapons). 

The threat of a hostile Iran is important because of Iran's power and its half-century of support for the Assad Regime since the Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s. 

25 prime actors participated in the following:

  • Determining the importance of a hostile Iran relative to other threats to the country. As shown in the chart below, the threat of a hostile Iran ranked 27th most important.
Syria R3 Threat of Iran.jpg

In response to questions about the seriousness of the threat of the threat of a hostile Iran— 

Round 3 participants stated (Nov. 2016 - Jul. 2017):

"From outsiders and insiders, including ISIL, there are a lot of casualties. When they capture territories everyone commits retaliatory executions. It's true of Hezbollah, the Kurds, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, the regime. It's much more than accidental casualties. It is apparent: the intentional killing of civilians, murder." (239312)

“Syria did not start the conflict. In general people came up against the regime peacefully. The government countered with bullets. It transformed from peaceful to armed. The whole country became a victim. Even the regime has no say. Outside forces, Russia and Iran, are in control of all the killing. The opposition leaders are ready to put down their arms and return to civilian life. The government brought in ISIL and is standing by, watching.” (222172)